Matthew Tyler

About

I’m an Assistant Professor in the Department of Political Science at Rice University. I develop statistical methods to address measurement and causal inference challenges in the study of partisan polarization.

Most of my current research examines how errors in survey responses affect what we can learn about political attitudes. I am the principal investigator on a National Science Foundation (NSF) CAREER grant supporting the development of methods to address these errors, with applications to measuring support for political violence and belief in conspiracy theories.

I earned my PhD in Political Science from Stanford University in 2021 and hold bachelor’s degrees in Statistical Science and Mathematics from Duke University.

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Refereed Journal Articles

  1. Tyler, Matthew, Shanto Iyengar, Arjun Wilkins, et al. “Campaigns Reinforce Partisanship and Short-Term Forces: Evidence from a Large-Scale Panel Study of the 2020 US Presidential Campaign.” Political Science Research and Methods. Conditionally accepted (pending replication).
  2. Tyler, Matthew, D. Sunshine Hillygus, Matthew DeBell, Ted Brader, Shanto Iyengar, Daron Shaw, and Nicholas Valentino. “Why Are Surveys Struggling to Estimate Vote Shares?” American Journal of Political Science (Early View). [DOI]
  3. Grimmer, Justin, Michael C. Herron, and Matthew Tyler. 2024. “Evaluating a New Generation of Expansive Claims about Vote Manipulation.” Election Law Journal 23(3): 211–236. [DOI].
  4. Tyler, Matthew, and Shanto Iyengar. 2024. “Testing the Robustness of the ANES Feeling Thermometer Indicators of Affective Polarization.” American Political Science Review 118(3): 1570–1576. [DOI].
  5. Tyler, Matthew, and Shanto Iyengar. 2023. “Learning to Dislike Your Opponents: Political Socialization in the Era of Polarization.” American Political Science Review 117(1): 347–354. [DOI].
  6. Westwood, Sean J., Justin Grimmer, Matthew Tyler, and Clayton Nall. 2022. “Current Research Overstates American Support for Political Violence.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119(12): e2116870119. [DOI].
  7. Tyler, Matthew, Justin Grimmer, and Shanto Iyengar. 2022. “Partisan Enclaves and Information Bazaars: Mapping Selective Exposure to Online News.” The Journal of Politics 84(2): 1057–1073. [DOI].
  8. Marble, William, and Matthew Tyler. 2022. “The Structure of Political Choices: Distinguishing Between Constraint and Multidimensionality.” Political Analysis 30(3): 328–345. [DOI].
  9. Fong, Christian, and Matthew Tyler. 2021. “Machine Learning Predictions as Regression Covariates.” Political Analysis 29(4): 467–484. [DOI].

Invited Articles

  1. Westwood, Sean J., Justin Grimmer, Matthew Tyler, and Clayton Nall. 2022. “Reply to Kalmoe and Mason: The Pitfalls of Using Surveys to Measure Low-Prevalence Attitudes and Behavior.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119(32): e2207584119. [DOI].

Working Papers and Manuscripts

  • Tyler, Matthew, Justin Grimmer, and Sean Westwood. “A Statistical Framework to Engage the Problem of Disengaged Survey Respondents: Measuring Public Support for Partisan Violence.” Working paper, July 13, 2024. [SSRN].
  • Erik Peterson, Matthew Tyler, and Agustin Prinetti. “Designing for Power: Covariates, Indices, and Efficiency in Survey Experiments.” Working paper, January 14, 2026. [SSRN].
  • Tyler, Matthew. “Bounding Causal Effects in Survey Experiments with Noncompliance or Inattention.” Working paper. [PDF].